Determining Risk

To prepare for this Discussion, think about potential projects or business decisions at your organization, or one with which you are familiar, which would benefit from a decision tree approach. Then select two different projects or business decisions, such as entering into a new market or expanding existing capacity to acquire additional market share for a product or service.

Once you have selected two potential choices to analyze, use the Risk Profile Graphing Tool, located in this week’s Learning Resources area, which will allow you to enter a dozen probability-NPV pairs of values for each of your two projects/business decisions. The dozen probabilities are your subjective probabilities, and it is acceptable for this exercise if they are not precise. The tool will plot your pairs of points and graphically display the probabilities (vertical axis) and NPV values (horizontal axis) similar to the graphs shown in your course text. The resulting graph represents a risk profile of each decision. It is essentially a graphic presentation of a decision tree, using a dozen probabilities as opposed to only three (high, moderate, low) presented in your course text.

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Then answer to the following:

1-A description of the risk profiles of the two potential choices you selected.
2-At this point, do not choose which alternative you feel is best. Rather, explain whether you think this tool is useful for addressing financial decisions in your organization.
3-Provide a rationale for your conclusion.
4-Be sure to attach to your Discussion post the Excel file that contains your two risk profiles.

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