This assignment relates to the following Course Learning Requirements:
[CLR 1] Calculate the chance that some specific event will occur at some future time • knowledge of the normal probability distribution
[CLR 2] Perform Sampling Distribution and Estimation
[CLR 3] Conduct Hypothesis Testing
[CLR 4] Understand and calculate Regression and Correlation
Objective of this Assignment: To conduct a regression and correlation analysis
The term paper must be typed and it will not be returned.
The term paper involves conducting a regression and correlation analysis on any topic of your choosing. The paper must be based on yearly data for any economic or business variable, for a period of at least 20 years
(Note: the source of the data must be given. Data which is not properly documented as to source is unacceptable and paper will be graded F. Textbook examples are unacceptable).
The paper can be between 3 to 5 pages (1500 to 2000 words).
The term paper should distinguish between dependent and independent variables; determine the regression equation by the least squares method; plot the regression line on a scatter diagram; interpret the meaning of regression coefficients; use the regression equation to predict values of the dependent variable for selected values of the independent variable and construct forecast intervals and calculate the standard error of estimate, coefficients of determination (r2) and correlation (r) and interpret the meaning of the coefficients (r2) and (r). Your regression and correlation analysis must:
1. Graph the data (scatter diagram)
2. Use the method of least squares to derive a trend equation and trend values
3. Use check column to verify computations ∑ (Y-Yc)=0
4. Superimpose trend equation on scatter diagram.
5. Use your model to predict the movement of the variable for the next year.
6. Compare your predictions with the actual behavior of the variable during the 21styear .
Quantitative Grading Rubric (20%)
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